How We Determine the Number of New Cases for the County

The Boro* chart of cumulative new cases in Monroe County over a two week time span. Data from PA Department of Health.

HARRISBURG (MAY 20 2020) - The first gating criteria for a county to be considered for movement into the yellow phase of COVID-19 mitigation in Pennsylvania is to have a two-week total of fewer than 50 new cases per 100,000 of population. Monroe County first hit that target this past Saturday, May 16, and has held below the target since then. How do we determine that? Well, it's pretty much a matter of math. Here's what we do to produce our charts each day.

According to the most recent US Census Bureau Population Estimates, Monroe County has an estimated 170,271 residents. We are using that number as the base residential population for the state (since that is what the Commonwealth agencies use). Based on that population, the 50 per 100,000 figure is 85 (rounded down). To determine the two-week total of new cases, we used the Pennsylvania Department of Health daily reports of total cases for the county.

MONROE COUNTY TOTAL CASES

APRIL MAY

25 1054 1 1147 7 1194 13 1228 19 1267

26 1065 2 1165 8 1198 14 1240

27 1083 3 1172 9 1206 15 1242

28 1096 4 1173 10 1218 16 1248

29 1111 5 1186 11 1224 17 1254

30 1127 6 1190 12 1229 18 1259

To determine the two-week total of new cases simply subtract from the total cases for the date from the total from two weeks earlier. As of yesterday's reports from the Department (which are the numbers reported to them as of 12 am each morning), the total new cases in Monroe County over the last two weeks was 81. That translates to 47.59 new cases per 100,000. So that's how we come up with the numbers.